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Things May Be Looking Better for 2012

Wells Fargo recently released their end of the year report, citing some positive news from recent statistics across the country.  Yet, it was also a mixed bag, with some price declines as well.  Here some of what they had to say:

Most of the economic reports dealing with housing have shown a little more strength recently. New home sales rose 1.6 percent in November and sales of existing homes climbed 4.0 percent. New home construction also improved, with housing starts rising 9.3 percent in November. Low mortgage rates, an improving job market, and some reported easing in mortgage underwriting standards has raised hopes that the momentum will carry over into 2012. Demand does appear to be firming a bit. Pending home sales jumped 7.3 percent in November, following an upwardly revised 10.4 percent rise the previous month. The National Association of Homebuilders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index has also risen, with more builders reporting gains in buyer traffic.

The news has not been universally positive. The latest S&P/Case-Shiller data shows price declines accelerating in October. The 20-city index fell 0.6 percent in October and has tumbled at a 6.4 percent pace over the past three months. Home prices are down 3.4 percent over the past year. Moreover, price declines have been fairly widespread, with 16 of the 20 markets surveyed reporting price declines in October. The sharp drop in home prices over the past three months should raise some caution flags for those expecting dramatic gains in 2012. Housing still faces a long and arduous road to recovery. That said, 2012 will be a better year. We have slightly increased our forecast for the next two years, which marks the first time we have raised our expectations for housing in any significant way in well over a year.

We'll be looking at some local data in Central Jersey in the near future to see how it all lines up, but at the very least, we are cautiously optimistic for a better year in 2012.

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